How fast is AI actually improving? If you follow the news, you will hear claims that we are on the verge of something called an “intelligence explosion” — a point where AI systems become smart enough to improve themselves, leading to rapid, unpredictable progress. This might sound like science fiction, but major AI companies and respected researchers take it seriously.
For Irish small business owners, the question is not whether AI will keep getting better, but how fast. Your business planning horizon matters here. If AI steadily improves over the next decade, you have time to adapt gradually. If a rapid breakthrough happens in the next two years, the businesses that prepared early will have a significant advantage.
What is an intelligence explosion?
The idea is simple. Once AI systems become good enough at doing AI research itself, they could enter a cycle of self-improvement. A system that can work 24 hours a day, seven days a week, without breaks, and can make thousands of copies of itself, could improve AI capabilities much faster than human researchers ever could. Researchers at organisations like the Future of Life Institute have studied this question in depth.
In a 2023 survey of machine learning researchers, 53% thought an intelligence explosion was at least 50% likely. That is a significant number. These are not fringe voices — they are the people building the technology.
What the evidence shows
AI models have been improving at a remarkable pace. OpenAI’s GPT models went from struggling with basic reasoning to outperforming PhD-level experts on advanced physics, biology, and chemistry problems within a few years. Their coding ability jumped from the 11th percentile to well above the 89th percentile in competitive programming in a matter of months.
Compute costs are also dropping. DeepSeek’s R1 model, which competes with cutting-edge AI systems, cost less than $6 million to train — a fraction of what similar models cost two years ago. Cheaper AI means more businesses can access it, which accelerates adoption across every industry.
What this means for Irish businesses
Even if a full intelligence explosion takes longer than some predict, the trend is clear. AI capabilities are improving faster than most businesses are adapting. The gap between what AI can do and what businesses use it for is widening, not shrinking.
Consider your own business. If AI tools that are ten times more capable than today’s become available in the next three years, what would that change? Customer service, accounting, marketing, compliance — every function will be affected. The businesses that start experimenting with AI now, even in small ways, will be far better positioned when the next leap happens.
The key is to build familiarity. You do not need to become an AI expert. But understanding what your tools can and cannot do, and keeping an eye on how fast they are improving, will help you make better decisions about when to invest and when to wait.
Practical steps for your business
Start by identifying one repetitive task in your business that takes up staff time. Look for an AI tool that can help with it. Test it yourself. See where it works and where it falls short. That hands-on experience is worth more than any news article.
Also, pay attention to what your software vendors are doing with AI. If your accounting package, CRM, or website platform is adding AI features, learn how to use them. The businesses that treat AI as a gradual, practical tool — rather than an abstract threat or a magic solution — will be the ones that benefit most.
The speed of AI progress is uncertain. What is certain is that standing still is not a winning strategy.